JACKSON, Tenn. — July 6, 2005 — Alberto Gonzalez is the likely pick of President Bush to replace retiring Supreme Court Justice Sandra Day O鈥機onnor, according to Sean Evans, a political science professor at 51社区.
鈥淭here鈥檚 two ways of looking at Bush,鈥� Evans said. 鈥淗e likes to reward loyalty and he likes to swing for the fence.鈥�
鈥淪winging for the fence鈥� would mean appointing a minority to the Supreme Court, such as a woman or a Latino.
鈥淲hen you combine loyalty and swinging for the fence, you get the name Alberto Gonzalez,鈥� Evans said. 鈥淓ven though there has been a very big anti-Gonzalez campaign by the conservatives, Bush has already said this past week, 鈥楲ay off.鈥欌��
Evans thinks a Latino nominee would make sense for the Republicans because the Latino population in the United States is growing and isn鈥檛 tied to a particular political party. Nominating a Latino would help the Republicans woo votes from Latin Americans. And since Gonzalez, the U.S. Attorney General, is a close friend of the president who has shown a great deal of loyalty, 鈥渉e would be a good choice from that perspective,鈥� Evans said.
If Gonzalez is not the candidate, Evans said he wouldn鈥檛 be surprised to see Bush appoint a woman 鈥� such as Edith Jones or Edith Brown Clement.
鈥淚 would expect a minority of some sort,鈥� he said.
Regardless, Evans doesn鈥檛 think the importance of Sandra Day O鈥機onnor鈥檚 seat is as vital as some are making it out to be, and her replacement certainly won鈥檛 鈥渋mperil our rights,鈥� as many liberal groups are suggesting.
鈥淚t doesn鈥檛 matter who Bush appoints because one person or justice cannot instigate a constitutional revolution and our system of government is not designed to promote radical change,鈥� Evans said. 鈥淓ven assuming that Bush appoints a very conservative justice, it still will not transform the court because the justices need to build a coalition of five justices with conflicting legal views.鈥�
Evans said the two most controversial issues on which the court may have to rule are homosexual and abortion rights. Since O鈥機onnor is part of a six-judge majority for these rights on the court, 鈥渞eplacing her with a conservative still keeps a five-person majority for those rights,鈥� he said.
鈥淭hose rights will not be in jeopardy until one of the liberals like John Paul Stevens or Ruth Bader Ginsberg retire because of age or health and are replaced by a conservative,鈥� Evans said.