JACKSON, Tenn. — Oct. 23, 2008 — Barring a late comeback by John McCain, all indications are that Barack Obama will be the next president of the United States, NBC correspondent Norah O鈥橠onnell said at 51社区 Oct. 22.
O鈥橠onnell, the chief Washington correspondent for MSNBC, was the keynote speaker for Union鈥檚 10th annual Union Forum. She cited the latest NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll giving Obama a double-digit lead over McCain, and she listed specific fundamentals that point to a Democratic victory.
鈥淢ore than 80 percent of this country believes this country is headed in the wrong direction,鈥� O鈥橠onnell said. 鈥淭he president and Congress have record-low approval ratings. Americans have lost more than $2 trillion in their investment and retirement savings. 鈥� This country wants change, and that favors the party that is not in power in the White House.鈥�
But despite the fundamental advantages, O鈥橠onnell said Obama has been unable to lock up the win, and she attributes that to McCain鈥檚 appeal.
鈥淎 lot of experts say that John McCain is the best Republican the Republican Party could have nominated in a year like this,鈥� she said.
Still, O鈥橠onnell said Obama鈥檚 lead is widening for a couple of reasons 鈥� the economic climate and the debates. O鈥橠onnell pointed to focus groups as evidence that many independent voters didn鈥檛 like McCain鈥檚 tone during the debates, and she said that McCain has struggled to find a consistent message on the economy.
In an NBC News poll, Obama has a 14-point lead on the question, 鈥淲ho would you most trust with your taxes?鈥�
鈥淭hat鈥檚 stunning,鈥� O鈥橠onnell said. 鈥淭hat is traditionally the Republicans鈥� advantage, when it comes to taxes.
O鈥橠onnell also cited other factors helping Obama. She said Colin Powell鈥檚 endorsement was a boost, and Obama holds a significant fundraising advantage -- $134 million in his campaign war chest to McCain鈥檚 $47 million.
In addition, Obama has taken advantage of the Internet in unprecedented ways for campaigning and fundraising, O鈥橠onnell said. He has used sites such as Facebook and technology such as text messaging to reach younger voters, and has ushered in a 鈥渘ew era鈥� in how political candidates will use such technology and social networking capabilities in the future.
Showing an electoral map projection by NBC News, O鈥橠onnell said NBC gives Obama a 264-163 advantage in the Electoral College. To win, a candidate must receive 270 electoral votes.
鈥淭he political winds are at Obama鈥檚 back,鈥� O鈥橠onnell said. 鈥淗e鈥檚 currently playing offense on this map. He is ahead or tied in at least 10 states that Bush won in 2004. Those are red states.鈥�
McCain, meanwhile, is playing defense, she said.
鈥淭he McCain campaign is now looking at an Electoral College strategy that essentially has no room for error,鈥� O鈥橠onnell said. 鈥淗e鈥檒l need a dramatic comeback in Pennsylvania in order to win. Pennsylvania has not backed Republicans in 20 years.鈥�
O鈥橠onnell also discussed the so-called 鈥淏radley effect,鈥� named after former Los Angeles Mayor Tom Bradley who ran for California governor in 1982. Bradley, a black candidate, was leading in the polls up to the election, but yet lost the race. The 鈥淏radley effect鈥� suggests that some people will tell pollsters they will support a black candidate for office, but hesitate to do so when they step into the voting booth.
O鈥橠onnell said some experts don鈥檛 expect that effect to come into play in this election for various reasons. They say, for starters, that election was 26 years ago, and the United States is less racist now than it was then.
Polling has also improved since then, O鈥橠onnell argued, and some experts even think a reverse 鈥淏radley effect鈥� may take place this year, with record numbers of black voters turning out to support Obama.
Regardless of the outcome, O鈥橠onnell said the 2008 election is a historic one. It is the first time since 1952 that the presidential campaign does not include an incumbent president or vice president seeking the office. The election is also historic because it will result in the first black president, the oldest president or the first woman vice president.
The Union Forum luncheon was the first event in the new Carl Grant Events Center on the Union campus. For the past nine years, Union has hosted the nation鈥檚 top speakers for an inside look at topics such as business, politics and international affairs. Previous speakers have included William Kristol, Margaret Carlson, Juan Williams, Stephen Carter, Mark Shields, David Brooks, Fred Barnes, Robert Novak, Michael Medved and Clarence Page, among others.